In this essay, we shall take an observation into the successful coups that took place in the two neighboring West African states of Mali and Guinea. In this essay, I am going to investigate the impact of the successive coups that took place in Bamako and Conakry. West Africa like any other region in Africa is a victim of misgovernance, corruption, tribalism, puppet rulers, kakistocratic , nepotic heads of state and government, where aspects such as liberty, equality, and fraternity. The trident that determines a republics' future and how it interacts with its citizenry. In turn, this then leaves the population vulnerable to the elements of terrorism, the key pillars that makeup and ascertain a state's safety and security. Leaves them ill-equipped and dependant on the protection of their own state, lying in the hands of foreign military assistance. Which to a seasoned soldier in one's observation might be an infuriating reality, therefore to the continents least expectation a special military forces coup is led by a significant leader that is either charismatic among his brother's in arms, well decorated and has an eye that is convincing to those that follow him. To an extent the junta leader would be a highly unknown figure to the public but revered among the ranks of his brothers in arms, one might suggest their military experience would attract loyalty across the army barracks.
Thomas Isadore Noel Sankara, his tragic demise at the allegedly accused Blaise Campaore, three decades later his assassination still sends shockwaves across the continent and the world. A staunch critic of imperial states and was torn on the French government's side his political views against the French left a bad taste in the pallet of the french government during his prime. Sankara was an advocate for the emancipation of the Africans across the plateau that determines any Africans independence. He was an advocate for African independence and self-reliance, in order for the vision of self-reliance. Sankara was an advocate for education, a decolonized Burkanabe education that would or could be transplanted across the African continent. In accordance with political terms, one would say Thomas Sankara was a son of the soil. As he understood that the costs of imperialism have had an adverse effect on the economy of many African states. As he observed that financial loans from global financial institutions were a mechanism used by the institutions to subjugate and keep African states under colonial control through historical debts. Therefore the financial institutions would then enforce African states to adopt an economic structural program that systematically keeps African states at their mercy. Such methods to pay off the debts that the African states would have adopted would be that the production of cash crops such as tobacco, cotton, and other products. They would then be sold at a devalued price in the focus of paying off the debts that African states would have acquired along the way as a means to develop themselves. This in turn meant African states will forever be at the mercy of their former colonial masters and their institutions of finance. Sankara's advocacy for an independent Africa meant that the encouragement of all officials within his government to purchase products that are locally manufactured. This approach by Thomas Sankara encouraged local economic growth at the expense of the foreign institutions which in one's observation enraged the former colonial masters of Burkina Faso. Allegedly conspired with Blaise Campaore to lead the assassination on his once former ally or brother in arms in 1987. The West African region has had key leaders and leadership icons that advocated for the progression and independence of Africa just to name a few John Jerry Rowlings, Seikou Toure, Modibo Keita. However, the region also is plagued by a past that many when they hear about the following names it would send chills down their spine. One such case would be Sani Abacha whose tentacles of corruption stretch as far as today, the Nigerian government with its partners is still unearthing the rapacious appetite of the former general that brought Nigeria into the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. In which Sani Abacha's wrath and gross appetite for vengeance were not afraid even to harm a free thinker such as Wole Soyinka. The prolific playwriter and novelist whose satirical body's of literary work brought to light the gross reckless nature of Sani Abacha to light through literature. This paragraph highlighting the two ajar African examples delivers to the floor the impact of what inspires coups to occur. Especially from the military barracks. The strong burning devotion and desire to save "the motherland" over the passage of time constantly inspires a new generation of daring think tanks. That has the intention of at least seeing their beloved homelands free from the clutches of corruption, misgovernance, and impunity. The training of defending the rights of the people as they interpret the constitution army personnel to understand that it is in the best interest of the state and its people to be liberated from the tentacles of the unpatriotic persons such as the likes of Boubacar Keita of Mali or Alpha Conde of Guinea. In observing assuming that each "coupists" intention for their motherland is pure and noble. The model of Thomas Sankara and John Jerry Rowlings would be the perfect outlet and blueprint to see the junta governments ushering in democracy within their states respectively.
Unraveling further a hypothesis has been proposed in the best interests of suggesting a window into understanding what is happening in both countries respectively. In this case, one shall start from the coast making headway into mainland Mali. The first hypothesis the coups that took place in Mali and Guinea were not a coincidence the coups might have been planned in months or years before it would have ever happened. Only a small number of military persons knew about what is happening in Mali and Guinea. This can be suggested by what can be determined as the geographical factor. This means Mali and Guinea are neighbors, Mali needs Guinea to gain access to the sea and therefore encourage trade with other parts of the world. In the best interest to counter any form of retaliation from ECOWAS Mali needs Guinea as a passage to access the Atlantic Ocean. According to various media outlets, one of the reasons that led to the ousting of Boubacar Keita by Col. Asimi Goita was the Tuareg rebels that were causing instability in the northern part of Mali. This then inspired Goita to execute the coup, furthermore, it is reported that the Keita army was defeated by rebels and this did not sit well with Goita. The project one state is being advocated by another military person Nobel Peace prize laureate winner Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed. Such persons will do whatever it takes to keep the country together. If it is going to war and decimate any opposition as witnessed on the ground in both parts of Africa. The army persons are not hesitant to pull the trigger to save the country. In the name of democracy and the future of the state. Reports coming out of Bamako suggested that the Keita government was corrupt, nepotic, and was not accountable. This then resulted in the loss of revenue in the country of Mali this meant programs such as education, health, economic opportunities for all were not on the cards in Mali. Considering the rich heritage and history the country carries from the great libraries of Timbuktu to be the home of Mansa Musa. One would suggest in the name of democracy and the best interests of the Malian people. Asimi Goita would be inspired to reach out to his colleague in Conakry and attempt to lead the coup. Mali has gold, bauxite "which is used for aluminum production, and aluminum is used in almost everything that pertains to electrical gadgets.", iron ore, limestone, phosphates, and uranium "which is used in nuclear technology", and the country has proven reserves of oil shale which can be extracted from sedimentary rocks and be used to economic growth. In turn, if managed properly the funds generated from the economic activities will ease the pressure off the shoulders of Malians. If possible cases such as unemployment, poverty, rebels would be solved because everyone has equal opportunities in the country. To an extent, the reasons signaled above would have inspired Col Asimi Goita to lead the coup and remove Boubacar Keita from his presidency. Including the Prime Minister of Mali Moctar Ouane including President, Bah N'Daw was removed in May of 2021. Mali witnessed two coups in one year, the reason behind the coups according to reports some were suggesting that coup leaders were being sidelined by the two heads of state and government which then prompted Col Asimi Goita to conduct the coup back in May 2021. The main reason behind the coups was that President Bah N'Daw and Prime Minister Moctar Ouane, they announced a new cabinet that excluded key military leaders. A sign that was not taken lightly by the junta of Goita. This then inspired the army to whisk away the realms of authority by force from the grasps of Ouane and N'Daw. Subsequently leading to Col Asimi Goita to be sworn in as the head of state and government of Mali. A move that the regional body ECOWAS did not appreciate the coup as ECOWAS assumed that the junta would allow an interim civilian government would assist Mali in establishing a civilian government under the watchful eye of the junta. In this regard, Col Asimi Goita in a bid to consolidate authority as he perceived that the rights of Malians are under threat, and as Malian democracy is under threat the Colonel saw to it that he is sworn in to be the president of Mali. It is worth noting that Colonel Asimi Goita became the head of state and government at the age of thirty-nine years. With the rise of military-led coups by young leaders on the continent one may suggest that the continent of Africa is caught in between an age crisis. Where the younger generation "millennial leaders" are cropping up and they have not witnessed, experienced, any form of stability in their respective countries. The only way to them in assuring that such stability is witnessed in their lifetime is to topple the older generation or in an unfortunate turn of events, their parents would pass away in the line of combat as is the case for Tchad. It might not be the same situation in Tchad where the chairman of the Transitional Military Council has a de facto status for President in Tchad. President Mahamat ibn Idriss Deby Itno aged thirty-eight is now the de facto president of Tchad. The way Mahamat ibn Idriss Deby Itno became the de facto leader of Tchad, some of the critics of the Military Council, claim that or interpret the transfer of power along the family lines disobeying the rules of the constitution can be interpreted as a coup. This can be debated around as it is a matter of interpretation. However, what is being delivered in this segment is that there is a shift in the African continent. Where millennials are now replacing the older generations that saw the inception of countries. In some cases, it is a messy situation and in other cases, it is a non-violent transfer of power. A case in point that can be interpreted as a shift in power on the continent where the old guard is being replaced by a new guard would be the Ethiopian crisis, where the TPLF has crossed swords with the Prosperity Party government of Abiy Ahmed that can further be witnessed and understood that the conflict in Ethiopia is a matter based around age. The younger vibrant appealing youthful leader Abiy Ahmed who is forty-five years. Is tussling for power with an older generation that does not seek, nor interprets to be challenged by a younger generation that is exposing them of their corrupt activities, and at the same time kraaling them (TPLF) to be part and parcel of his political party The Prosperity Party. This can be suggested as a clash of generations which then led to a bloody conflict in Ethiopia which comes at a great heavy price for the Ethiopian people. The point that is being delivered and is being focused on in this section furthermore is directed to give the reader an observation into the democracy conversation around the factor of age. Where the interpretation of democracy on the continent of Africa is no longer the same as the interpretation of the older generation, the ones that brought independence. It can be signaled around globalization and also the continent of Africa as being the youngest continent in the world. The median age is about eighteen to twenty-two years old. Therefore as a suggestion to this conversation, it can be linked to the conflicts that are happening across the continent from east to west, north, and south.
The second hypothesis focuses and interrogates, suggesting that the coup that happened in Conakry may be visited along the tangent of the ousted Guinean President Alpha Conde's decision of moving away from the colonial bondage that most former francophone states were forced to sign during the times of Charles De Gaulle. The eight West African states that signed the "pact of the continuation of colonization", the legal instrument was dedicated to keeping all former francophone states to be under the control of the French in which a certain percentage of their annual budget is transferred to the French central bank. In a bid to maintain legitimacy in the eyes of the Guinean electorate proposed that Guinea should leave the pact. In 2017 the Emmanuel Macron was of the opinion that Alpha Conde would leave power gracefully. A foreshadowing for Alpha Conde that he should step away from power while he still has his dignity intact. One might suggest that maybe Parisian intelligence had an insight about a budding mutiny from the Guinean army. A piece of key information that Alpha Conde did not know about as the army under the leadership of Colonel Mamady Doumbouya was planning a coup against Alpha Conde. Broadening the scope in trying to understand the coup from a far-off distance, it can be appreciated in the context of the role Guinea plays in the global manufacturing of electronic devices. This in turn means that Guinea is the third-largest producer of the mineral Bauxite which is then processed to bring out aluminum. Aluminum is then used in the assembly of electronic devices in this key role that Guinea plays. This then assists Guinea to be a key player on the global front of electronic device manufacturing. In observing Alpha Conde's stance of consciously moving away from the "pact of the continuation of colonization". This did not sit well with the former colonial master of Guinea in order for its economy to be spectacular, and eye-watering as it is to this day. In observing the economic and financial hostage situation that francophone states are kept by France. If any Francophone walks away from the pact it is either the country is isolated and made an example that deters other Francophone states to walk away from the pact. At the same time, some of the rebellion that occurs in those parts of the continent do not occur spontaneously, one might suggest that there would be a foreign handler that is funding these rebels targeting their inner most angst. One such case would be the tribalism card or linguistic card, maybe an ethnicity card in the bid to cause instability. Therefore in order to maintain peace and stability, the French army is then called upon to assist when such crises do occur. Another classic example would be the Ivorian crisis of around 2011/13 when Laurent Gbagbo disputed with the results of the election thus instigating Alassane Ouattara to flee to France and plead for assistance in removing Laurent Gbagbo in the full view of ECOWAS. Unfortunately for Alpha Conde, he had stirred the hornet's nest and he did not heed to the advice of his French compatriot, in seeking a third term was drawing unwanted attention on the president further inspiring the serviceman under Doumbouya to lead the coup. One of the reasons that inspired the serviceman to commit a mutiny against their former leader as highlighted by the Colonel were the following reasons, corruption, misgovernance, poverty just to note a few. Based on those reasons Alpha Conde was a sitting duck in which he was deposed from authority by his own serviceman and has not been seen in public for some months. In understanding the coups that occurred in Guinea and Mali, one might suggest the following suggestion "which is open for discussion with any interested party". The coups that occurred in Mali and Guinea were not coincidental, they were planned well in advance where the serviceman operated under the radar of their own presidents Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and Alpha Conde. In the whim of Sankaraism, the serviceman sought to duplicate the similar feat in their respective nations. Another point that may be submitted in this section is that led to the success of the coups. One would note that the people of Mali and Guinea permitted the soldiers to do so. As it can be understood that in both nations rich with minerals and potential that are being underutilized any form of an outlet would be permissible in their gaze. Furthermore, the two leaders Colonel Goita and Doumbouya are respected war heroes that have gained experience from various campaigns. In which as armies operate they operate in accordance to hierarchy the seasoned and decorated the person the greater the respect they have among their peers. It was unfortunate for the coupists of Gabon that they rushed into executing their plan before establishing firm roots within their further resulting in the coup being unsuccessful. As the coupists spoke on Gabonese national television they highlighted key arguments that many Gabonese have been lamenting for a while. One such case would be the health of Ali Bongo Ondimba, the Gabonese leader who has been inflicted by a stroke but is still holding on to power. The nation has oil but the national resources have been privatized only to serve the Gabonese political elite at the expense of the Gabonese people that have been pushed to the brink of human-induced poverty. Due to greed from the elite that is only focusing on serving themselves and their cronies. Which deplores the state into a state of apathy when that is not the case granted the means of democracy are observed and respected by the powers that be. In such cases in the attempt into understanding the decision of the two leaders Colonel Goita and Doumbouya had the conviction of leading the coups. As their actions can be interpreted into that they were questioning the legitimacy of ECOWAS, a question that critics the organization as is it a body that advocates for democracy across the West African bloc or it is a club for the political elite that have their interests to be appreciated at the expense of the masses. A serviceman is trained, conditioned, and taught to be loyal to their country. This can be observed what makes up a country? A country is not just the fauna and flora it is the inhabitants of that territory as they are entitled to the terms and conditions stipulated from the social contract. That they should be granted access to liberty, equality, and fraternity which in turn inspires the development of a nation. Unfortunately due to a plethora of cases such as poverty, corruption, kleptocracy, nepotism, among other ills, they inspire coups as is the case of Mali and Guinea.
In observing that the successive coups might have been in the works for a while without the knowledge of Keita and Conde. Given the socio-economic factors that have plagued the people of Mali and Guinea the factors inspired the pair to evoke a coup within their respective territories, one may suggest that it was planned well in advance. The chief architects of the coup especially in Mali anticipated the aggression of ECOWAS where the regional bloc would impose economic sanctions on Mali since Mali is a landlocked country and it needs access to the Atlantic Ocean and the rest of the world. The Goita administration needs Guinea to pass through and carry out its trade. Thus in the understanding of military brotherhood. The sanctions would have an impact on Mali however not as much as ECOWAS would have anticipated. As in Guinea, there is a junta that shares the same ideology as the Malian Junta. A similar situation of 1965 was when the then Rhodesian government of Ian Smith declared the Unilateral Declaration of Independence (U.D.I.). A political move by Smith was evoked in an attempt to curb the nationalists to yield, and not to entertain any thoughts of going to war. At that time the Smith regime was subjected to tough economic sanctions by the United Kingdom. However, they had no to little no effect as the Rhodesia of Smith was granted access to continue with its economic activities with apartheid South Africa. That had a similar stance as Rhodesia of a minority government that advocated for white supremacy. The similarity here is that Guinea and Mali are both Junta governments that have a cause and they believe in there at the same time questioning the legitimacy of ECOWAS of being home for corrupt kleptocratic persons within their ranks. Observing further the debate that is being submitted before ECOWAS by the Colonels would be that they believe that a serviceman led country does have the capabilities to prosper and perform well as compared to any civilian-led government as the stance that was taken by the Malian presidency in announcing that the presidential elections will take place in December 2025. The ideas that were submitted by Goita administration were that of stability within Mali. As it is still a volatile state as it might be pushed into all-out war since the northern parts of Mali are rocked by rebels. Therefore any form of transition of power would be detrimental to the greater Malian people. That is waiting for a stable Mali, thus the sanctions imposed upon Mali by the ECOWAS body would be of little to no effect, this is suggesting that the junta has spoken and it does not intend to go back to its decision as long as Guinea is a junta led the state as Mali the airspaces might be closed, however, the airspace of Guinea is open giving Mali the legroom for it to carry out its economic activities as usual. What the sanctions would have impacted Mali would be that the Goita administration will focus on fostering a national building project that would naturally draw the Malians to appreciate and accept the Goita administration as a legitimate body that is destined to lead Mali to its truest trajectory. The first port of call for the Goita administration would be curbing the northern Malian crisis at the same time weeding out persons that were corrupt putting to trial furthering the legitimacy of the Goita administration. Therefore in observing the ECOWAS sanctions effect one might suggest that it is a mere ruffling of feathers that does have an impact on the Malian government but the impact will not be a large scale as ECOWAS would have anticipated.
In conclusion, it can be submitted that democracy in the Western Africa region is a hotly contested debate into defining exactly what does democracy looks like. Some would debate and say a civilian government is a democracy that is according to ECOWAS. However, on the other hand, Colonel Asimi Goita and Mamady Doumbouya understand that democracy under the eagle eye of a serviceman is democracy. As another serviceman such as Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has established the blueprint that can inspire servicemen to follow suit in delivering prosperity in the respective states that they serve. The year has just begun and I shall return and discuss further into areas of interest around the West African region.
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